alt Hacker Newsbecause of GPU depreciation schedules and competitive hardware upgrade cycles), and opex of delivering LLM inference services, and being able to price it all competitively.
Hacker News increasingly feels like being a horse in 1916, reading in the Horse Bulletin that Ford is a scam and a bubble because the mass-market automobile will soon be commoditized.
There's an object-level claim to consider, but behind it the more baffling implication that this would be good for horses.
Replies
thereader12 • today at 4:01 PM
I mean Ford didn't get a trillion dollars because he is to be only manufacturer of any and all transportation. There are still horses, and Ford and Dodge(Anthropic) are not even the biggest manufacturers.
No horsing around here, just money math that says interest rates on debt sunk into datacenters will far outstrip the most optimistic revenue projections as of 2028-29-ish, when the bulk of the debt will come a-calling.
Also, inverse Pascal's Wager, because horse v/s motorcar is a false dichotomy... they are bound by the same laws of physics (faster horse, less shit, more noise and more smoke), merely different economic realities.
Hyperscaler bet is "Superintelligence" and/or "AGI", or we will make a God. That is a technological singularity. There will be a "before God" and "after God" world, and we will very likely never be able to understand what the AGI/Superintelligence's world looks like. (Because to understand what it is like to be a bat, you have to become the bat, but at that point your meaning of "understanding" itself changes entirely).
So I believe ten trillion dollars and a bunch of pirated books and source repos, and well pirated everything, mostly of very dubious quality and provenance, will not result in a God. I've been acting accordingly.