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vannevar • today at 4:00 PM • 0 replies • view on HN

While this is true, most of Anthropic's expenses involve locking up compute for the future. But they have no idea how much compute they will actually need in the future, or how much they're going to be able to charge their customers for it. Per token prices are dropping like a rock, and performance optimizations are making model serving more efficient. Combine that with the comparatively slower growth in organic AI demand (compared to debt-driven/investor subsidized demand), and you have the very real possibility of a 2000-style "dark fiber" problem.