alt Hacker News> By then, though, the AIs may be good enough to replace the experts. Next year? Next week? Who knows.
Lately, I've been pondering this question in general and I'm worried the answer might be "Never" for some kinds of work - at least if we don't change how LLMs are currently developed and improved. At a high-level, the problem is they don't 'learn on the job' like a human and writing their memory & learning in .md files works for some things but fails for others.
While the 'rising tide' of baseline LLM knowledge continues to grow, they are still FTIs (Factory Trained Intelligences), meaning they mostly learn from data which can be assembled/tagged or synthesized in mass bulk - plus specific abilities in certain domains which the factory has prioritized for more costly special training. For some broad categories of important work, I suspect there's a significant unfilled gap in our LLM instances being able to effectively crystallize knowledge acquired on-task. Without that, context files will remain helpful crutches not true substitutes.
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>>By then, though, the AIs may be good enough to replace the experts. Next year? Next week? Who knows.
>Lately, I've been pondering this question in general and I'm worried the answer might be "Never" for some kinds of work
Why are we worried that AIs might not be able to replace people? That seems like quite the dystopian statement.
I would argue that we have no idea how the technology will change. Humans have a poor record of predicting what human based technology can do in a given amount of time. This is non-human intelligences. All bets are off. Maybe the AI can give us a clue. If they feel like it.
Sci-fi stuff aside, it's not just a matter of the AI's telling the supporting tech what to do. We are already at the point where we can't predict what the AI will do to the supporting tech. Blender, for example, is mostly traditional computer science with some physics and art direction thrown in. It's damn hard to use.
This is not a criticism, that's just where we are in developing a UI for the math and physics and art direction. Just using the AI to make for me UI changes, convenience features, and special utilities has drastically changed not only the way I work, but the kind of projects I'll undertake. I think nothing of having Claude whip up a special physics based particle system or compositing stack these days. I could have done that in the past, but it would have been so much work for a one time job I wouldn't consider it. I'd just brute force a solution with manual keyframes and a lot of trial and error.
And while I can program and solve (simple) physics problems, its not my day job. My day job is telling stories and explaining things with animated narratives.
Earlier today I was asked to help with some animations explaining how musical scales worked and to come up with ways to visualize them. Using Claude I've already got Blender doing a credible job at creating musical notation and linking it up to a (sort of) physically accurate sound wave simulation/visualization. Not done yet, but it's looking promising. This is within a few tens of minutes of an instructional designer asking me what might be possible for the topic. And I already have a sound synthesizer written in javascript (by Claude) that I used for a project a while back. Hooking them together is just a json file or two away...
Even if the Super Intelligence never materializes, just using current LLMs as an amplifier for existing technology is going to change things into something unrecognizable. And something that is very dangerous in the hands of human bad actors.