I don't think it will happen for ideological reasons. Despite his lack of respect for the decorum of US democracy, most others have too much respect for it to start putting former leaders in prison.

However, his second term has been a lot different than his first. The first term had mostly just allegations of personal misconduct. The second term has been marked by a much more organized and systematic dismantling of the administrative state in illegal ways, which has been a lot more impactful.

The Republicans that shielded him will be out of office and also he is a lot less popular now.

> Why would that happen if it didn’t happen when they had 4 years to do it the first time?

Not saying it will certainly happen, but there will be different people at helm this time, and his more crimes are out now.