alt Hacker News2030 is an eternity. We will almost certainly have advanced AGI before then. Read the METR report.
They will build this capacity anyways, delaying them to 2030 would be a massive win.
2030 is an eternity. We will almost certainly have advanced AGI before then. Read the METR report.
They will build this capacity anyways, delaying them to 2030 would be a massive win.
Which METR report? The one about Anthropic's acceleration rate for improved benchmark results, that put the value at anywhere between 1.1 and 3x per year.
I don't know what your definition of "advanced AGI" is, but if it's the target for a final "win" to the AI race, I think you need to reassess what the current capabilities really are, we're still in the infancy or toddler stages of AGI at best. You should also take a look at how fast Chinese labs are closing the gap, with greater efficiency compared to US labs.
The US mindset of abundance and "scaling laws" is not going to have them win the race. It's not a sustainable strategy.