alt Hacker NewsI wake up, I read articles about how the AI crash is coming. I figure that it's not actually coming because everyone is talking about it, so it's priced in.
And then I pull up HN / LinkedIn / X / Substack where everyone is telling me that this is the new AI economy and the tech can't possibly flop, so I figure that the crash must be coming because there's too much optimism.
I go to sleep. Then I wake up and read...
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AI is a parabolic thing.
It’s made so many people so much money chasing this future that feels just over the next hill. I think being a downer about it is short-sighted, but it’s equally short-sighted to assume that the go-go crazy run that we’ve had will continue forever.
My experience with this has been insane, companies like Nvidia and Micron have made me pretty rich. But you can’t be emo about it. Take advantage of your gains and be a good steward of your resources.
I’m also old enough to remember 1996, and the amazing future as chronicled in Wired magazine. Come 2000, the wipeout was humbling, but many aspects of the web visionaries was correct.
> And then I pull up HN / LinkedIn / X / Substack where everyone is telling me that this is the new AI economy and the tech can't possibly flop
Really? It feels like most people are talking about an AI bubble, with a vocal minority in opposition.
Any day now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ETxmOfw0JM
..and how much of that AI optimism (and some pessimism) is generated by the same proprietary llms? Recursive self-enbubbling?
> decide that it's not coming because everyone is expecting it and pricing it in.
I'm in the same boat. I'm hoping that the crashing is moving slowly enough that it can unwind carefully, and that not enough data centers got started that things can't simply be cancelled without much harm.
A bunch of fake money borrowed on commitments over data centers never built and plowed back into the ouroboros rather than escaping into the larger economy seems like it could be unwound with only a few people going broke. The only wasted real production would be in all of the chips - and they might be able to go somewhere, somehow. The data centers currently built will certainly be well-utilized - the overcapacity hasn't actually, physically been done, right?
If a bunch of circular financing went into doing something that never fully happened, is that a crash or a lifting of a mask over a real economy that has continued its previous slide?
And if capacity ends up fully utilized and prices do go up, won't there be dozens of viable half-done projects, the best of which that could be dusted off and rolled out again?