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Ankaios • yesterday at 10:26 PM • 1 reply • view on HN

SpaceX below $1T is criminally undervalued.

Launch itself isn't super profitable and doesn't have a very big TAM, especially if you carefully treat the TAM as a present value and discount future cash flows. Also, at least by my personal guesswork, Starlink alone shouldn't get close to a $1 trillion valuation. It seems like the current valuation is based on people's guesses about the likelihood that space data centers pan out in a big way.


Replies

s08148692 • yesterday at 11:30 PM

> It seems like the current valuation is based on people's guesses about the likelihood that space data centers pan out in a big way

The Starship program is one of - if not the - biggest risks here. Making starship work could bring the launch cost down far enough to derisk that whole program, and today just made it a lot less risky