> It's got me wondering: do any of my hard work actually matter?
I recently retired from 40 years in software-based R&D and have been wondering the same thing. Wasn't it true that 95% of my life's work was thrown away after a single demo or a disappointingly short period of use?
And I think the answer is yes, but this is just the cost of working in an information economy. Ideas are explored and adopted only until the next idea replaces it or the surrounding business landscape shifts yet again. Unless your job is in building products like houses or hammers (which evolve very slowly or are too expensive to replace), the cost of doing of business today is a short lifetime for any product; they're replaced in increasingly fast cycles, useful only until they're no longer competitive. And this evanescent lifetime is especially the case for virtual products like software.
The essence of software is to prototype an idea for info processing that has utility only until the needs of business change. Prototypes famously don't last, and increasingly today, they no longer live long enough even to work out the bugs before they're replaced with yet another idea and its prototype that serves a new or evolved mission.
Will AI help with this? Only if it speeds up the cycle time or reduces development cost, and both of those have a theoretical minimum, given the time needed to design and review any software product has an irreducible minimum cost. If a human must use the software to implement a business idea then humans must be used to validate the app's utility, and that takes time that can't be diminished beyond some point (just as there's an inescapable need to test new drugs on animals since biology is a black box too complex to be simulated even by AI). Until AI can simulate the user, feedback from the user of new/revised software will remain the choke point on the rate at which new business ideas can be prototyped by software.
Most of a chefs meals are now poo. Memories of those meals survive but eventually they will fade too.
There is a lot of value in being the stepping stone to tomorrow. Not everyone builds a pyramid.
I still have code running in production I wrote 20 years ago. Sure, it’s a small fraction, but arguably that’s the whole point.
> Ideas are explored and adopted only until the next idea replaces it or the surrounding business landscape shifts yet again.
“Creative destruction is a concept in economics that describes a process in which new innovations replace and make obsolete older innovations.”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction
I think about this a lot with various devices I owned over the years that were made obsolete by smartphones. Portable DVD players and digital cameras are the two that stand out to me; each of them cost hundreds of dollars but only had a marketable life of about 5 years. To us these are just products on a shelf, but every one of them had a developer, an assembly line, and a logistics network behind them; all of these have to be redeployed whenever a product is made obsolete.