the top % of talent is still extremely hard to get, perhaps moreso
saw an article recently where every sector is seeing a reduction in IT/devs except for tech and ai companies
if your company is in a sector where eng is a cost-center and the product is not directly tied to your engineers / your company is pushing for efficiency it's an employer's market
I don't think it makes sense to consider top % of the talent - relative to the total amount of engineers I imagine it would be minuscule.
It's the rest who will have to deal with shrinking number of positions, higher competition and possibly decrease in compensation due to said competition.