alt Hacker NewsAfter 30 years in front of the desktop, we are processing dopamine differently.
When I speak about 10 years from now, I’m referring to who will become an average developer if we replace the real coding experience learning curve with LLMs from day one.
I also hear a lot of tool analogies — tractors for developers, etc. But every tool, without an exception, provides replicable results. In the case of LLMs, however, repeatable results are highly questionable, so it seems premature to me to treat LLMs in the same way as any other tool.
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> if we replace the real coding experience learning curve with LLMs from day one.
People will learn different things. They will still learn. Most developers I've hired over the years do not know assembly. Many do not know a low-level language like C. That is a downside if they need to write assembly, but most of them never do (and incidentally, Opus knows x86 assembly better than me, knows gdb better than me; it's still not good at writing large assembly programs). It does not make them worse developers in most respects, and by the time they have 30 years experience the things they learn instead will likely be far more useful than many of the things I've spent years learning.
> But every tool, without an exception, provides replicable results.
This is just sheer nonsense, and if you genuinely believe this, it suggests to me a lack of exposure to the real world.
Right, I've seen a lot of facile comparisons to calculators.
It may be true that a cohort of teachers were wrong (on more than one level) when they chastised students with "you need to learn this because you won't always have a calculator"... However calculators have some essential qualities which LLM's don't, and if calculators lacked those qualities we wouldn't be using them the way we do.
In particular, being able to trust (and verify) that it'll do a well-defined, predictable, and repeatable task that can be wrapped into a strong abstraction.