This was my thought. If these markets continue allowing insiders, it’ll drive all of the cash from regular people away. So there will be way less money for insiders to win even if they are allowed.

So the perception of insiders is pretty bad for prediction markets as a business imo.

The sooner they knock off the rhetoric about the “theory” behind prediction markets and start thinking about it like a business, the sooner they will take insiders seriously.

Even if you are not "betting" similar trades are happening in the stock market as well. Large movements in oil futures shortly before policy changes are announced.

A bet against an event is win/win if you want that event to occur. If you are a country that wanted the US to strike Iran, placing a large number of bets that they won't either gets you what you want or earns you money. It is one reason why you can't bet on someone being murdered, as it creates a deniable market to crowd source assassination. Strange that you can crowd source war, but not assassination.

You also have to be quite stupid to do it with insider knowledge. A bunch of them have been caught in Israel.

Being indicted for treason and treason like charges sounds worse than the SEC coming after you.

And this is the whole point.

Prediction markets are supposed to be providing the most accurate predictions.

The most accurate predictions come from insider information.

Poeple complaining about insider trading on prediction markets seem to be missing the point. They're supposed to have insider trading. That's the whole idea.

considering the scale involved, and the OSINT trend, is it possible that people could monitor and correlate stuff like airplane, or us navy activity to deduce when to enter ?

Do you buy oil or products made with it? Then sorry, you made a bet, and in fact you were just ripped off by your own government for the third time in a row.

This is not a "crypto prediction market" problem.

Same goes for sport betting and yet here we are. People like to bet. They willingly bet on things they have guaranteed disadvantage on (casino games like roulette, slots etc.). People also drink pure poison (alcohol), smoke pure poison (cigarettes) and engage in brain dead activities like speeding and street racing.

Gambling should be judged as any other vice - people get something out of it (rush, hope, whatever) not by rational money allocation standards.

couldn't you somehow in theory track the order book to if and when insiders are betting and then copy the trade?

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Apparently, according to you, lots of people are spectularly stupid because the only way you make money in a prediction market is for someone to bet on the opposing view point.