One aspect you have to consider is the differences in human beings doing the evaluation. I had a coworker/report who would hand me obvious garbage tier code with glaring issues even in its output, and it would take multiple iterations to address very specific review comments (once, in frustration, I showed a snippet of their output to my nontechnical mom and even my mom wtf’ed and pointed out the problem unprompted); I’m sure all the AI-generated code I painstakingly spec, review and fix is totally amazing to them and need very little human input. Not saying it must be the case here, that was extreme, but it’s a very likely factor.
This is magical because you are both on the exact right path and not right. My theory is there’s a sort of skill to teasing code from AI (or maybe not and it’s alchemy all over again) and this is all new enough and we don’t have a common vocabulary for it that it’s hard for one person who is having a good experience and one person who is not to meaningfully sort out what they are doing differently.
Alternatively, it could be there’s a large swath of people out there so stupid they are proud of code your mom can somehow review and suggest improvements in despite being nontechnical.
This is plausible. Assuming it’s true, we would see the adoption of vibe coding at a faster rate amongst inexperienced developers. I think that’s true.
A counterpoint is Google saying the vast majority of their code is written by AI. The developers at Google are not inexperienced. They build complex critical systems.
But it still feels odd to me, this contradiction. Yes there’s some skill to using AI but that doesn’t feel enough to explain the gap in perception. Your point would really explain it wonderfully well, but it’s contradicted by pronouncements by major companies.
One thing I would add is that code quality is absolutely tanking. PG mentioned YC companies adopted AI generated code at Google levels years ago. Yesterday I was using the software of one such company and it has “Claude code” levels of bugginess. I see it in a bunch of startups. One of the tells is they seem to experience regressions, which is bizarre. I guess that indicates bugs with their AI generated tests.