>> Bad engineers continue being bad, good engineers continue being good.
I don't know if good engineers can necessarily continue to be good. There is limit to how much careful consideration one can give if everything is on an accelerated timeline. Regardless good or not, there is limit on how much influence you have on setting those timelines. The whole playing field is changing.
> if everything is on an accelerated timeline
Good engineers are also capable of managing expectations. They can effectively communicate with stakeholders what compromises must be made in order to meet accelerated timelines, just as they always have.
We’ve already had conversations with overeager product people what the ramifications are for introducing their vibe coded monstrosities:
- Have you considered X?
- Have you considered Y?
Their contributions are quickly shot down by other stakeholders as being too risky compared to the more measured contributions of proper engineers (still accelerated by AI, but not fully vibe-coded).If that’s not the situation where you work, then unfortunately it’s time to start playing politics or find a new place to work that knows how to properly assess risk.
An old comic I like:
- I've taken a controversial new pill that accelerates my brain.
-- So you're smart now?
- I'm stupid faster!
That being said, being stupid faster can work if validation is cheap (and exists in the first place).
Turns out "eh close enough" for AGI is just stupidity in an "until done" loop. (Technically referred to as Ralphing.)
Hmmm, I think I disagree with this.
I estimate that I'm now spending about 10 to 30 hours less time a week in the mechanical parts of writing and refactoring code, researching how to plumb components together, and doing "figure out how to do unfamiliar thing" research.
All of those hours are time that can now be spent doing "careful consideration" (or just being with my family or at the gym or reading a book, which is all cognitively valuable as well).
Now, I suppose I agree that if timelines accelerate ahead of that amount of regained time, then I'm net worse off, but that's not the current situation at the moment, in my experience.
There is no limit.
Or at least, the limit is increasing by the day.
When there is all that crap out there, good engineer may simply just carry out, call it good and leave the industry. Personally seeing the proliferation of wibe coded apps has made me hesitant of publishing and promoting my AI free apps.
It's deeper. We used to mock architects that stepped back and stopped coding, because they generated trash.
There's a cycle that is needed for good system design. Start with a problem and an approach, and write some code. As you write the code, you reify the design and flesh out the edge cases, learning where you got the details wrong. As you learn the details, you go back to the drawing board and shuffle the puzzle pieces, and try again.
Polished, effective systems don't just fall out of an engineers head. They're learned as you shape them.
Good engineers won't continue to be good when vibe-coding, because the thing that made them good was the learning loop. They may be able to coast for a while, at best.