alt Hacker NewsWhat a time to be alive.
So much of the fundamental dynamics of the industry and the job have changed in so little time. Basically over night.
Some days I am so excited at how much I can do now. You can build anything you want, in basically no time! 100% of my software dreams can be a reality.
Some days I am terrified at what's going to happen to the job market.
Suddenly you can get so much with so little. The world only needs so much software.
Is every company that sells software as their core business model going to go out of business?
What will happen if only certain companies or governments get access to the best models?
Replies
It’s pure marketing. Don’t be naive
> The world only needs so much software.
Around the time of the dot com crash, there was a decent amount of rhetoric advising students and job seekers against getting into the software industry, because it was getting "too saturated." The thinking was there's just not that much work to go around, especially for the number of people flocking to the field. And the crash just reinforced that narrative.
But even as a student back then, I could tell that there was unlimited scope for software. Pretty much any cognitive thing we do manually could be done in software. I once idly tried to enumerate those and quickly realized there was soooo much to do. Plus, I also understood that the more you do things a new way, a lot more things pop up that we haven't even imagined yet. The possibilities were countless. It was clear that the "saturation" narrative stemmed from a lack of people's imagination and understanding of what software really was.
I just knew that this field would never get saturated because it was impossible to run out of things to write software for.
But these days...
I mean, I know we will always have new software to build as things evolve, which they will do faster than ever with AI. But these days, I wonder if it's now possible to write software faster than we can imagine new things to do.
Let's take a SW business like a ticketing system.
Do you think 100 enterprises with 1 bln of tokens are going to make a better product than specialized vendor with 100bln of tokens?
For sure SW vendors and SAAS like "logo creator" are already dead, but unless the next generation of LLMs aren't going to have an embedded ticketing system the ticketing system vendor will be fine(maybe less headcount, but not sure).
Certainly companies and governments will have access to better models than the public (in fact, that's already the case with Mythos). The public will still be able to help themselves with models that are behind the frontier.
> Is every company that sells software as their core business model going to go out of business?
Probably not, for a number of reasons:
* Some software suites are (probably still for a few years) too big to regenerate them through a coding LLM
* There's quite a lot of proprietary knowledge not just in the code itself, but in the requirements, industry knowledge etc. For example if you want to write a hospital management system, you need to know a lot about how hospital works, how they are billing their services in different legislatures, data protection rules etc.
* For some pieces of software (like computer-aided engineering), validation of the software is just as important as the software itself.
* Liability: suppose you build bridges, and you're on the hook if it fails too early. Do you really want to vibe-code your own software that validates the bridge's design? Will any insurance company cover that? Probably not in the near future...
* Currently, security and safety of LLM-generated code is still a pretty big concern. I guess this will get better as the LLM-Coding industry matures.