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e9yesterday at 8:12 PM4 repliesview on HN

I want to propose alternative reality where 1.5-2.5T in value doesn't go to a handful of companies. Instead it turns out to be like restaurants where this gets distributed to lots and lots of small, local, mostly interchangeable teams. There will of course be some super star "chefs" leading the industry and setting trends and some "restaurant chain" like big businesses and supply chain for all of this.


Replies

keedayesterday at 11:15 PM

FWIW I do think that availability of competitive open weight and other non-frontier models, along with improvements in harnesses that can get good results out of these models, will result in less concentration and a healthier marketplace.

However, these frontier labs are also making moves that could let them capture a disproportionate share of the upside. One possibility is a situation analogous to the smartphone manufacturing space, where there are dozens of players but just a handful (e.g. Apple, Samsung in smartphones) capture the lion's share of the revenue.

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xxporyesterday at 8:44 PM

The world is not zero sum. Value is created, not just preserved. Anthropic and OpenAI creating value does not imply that smaller guys can not also create value.

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bdammyesterday at 9:02 PM

How? Training and operating models seems to naturally focus on those willing to invest quite significantly in these operations.

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actionfromafaryesterday at 8:21 PM

Sysco is pretty big.