alt Hacker Newswould you really bet that this is it? there is nothing beyond this?
reminds me of the famous anecdote of a 19th century physics professor who said "there is nothing left to be discovered in physics, only minor corrections"
then came Einstein...
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see, I don't need to "bet this"; the inverse is true: the people placing large bets are either going to get their AGI, or fail miserably.
I don't need to bet anything. I'm not a sociopath who thinks the AI god needs to be built, appeased, etc. That's the torment nexus.
So, it's pretty easy to see realistically if you are satisified with local models and how they affect what you actually do.
I can see the POV of a software engineer that isn't specialized to any specific topic being replaced by various models.
But again, I see the sigmoid, not the "AGI" or the "this baby has grow very big in 1 year, urely it'll become a giant in 5.
That wasn’t just a physics professor that was William Thompson aka Lord Kelvin (the dude the temperature unit is named after and one of the most important mathematical physicists of the 19th century [1]), who also said that heavier than air flight was physically impossible only a couple of weeks before the Wright Brothers (and presumably in spite of having at least once in his lifetime seen a bird). Proof that you can be both very smart and simultaneously a bit of a jackass.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lord_Kelvin