alt Hacker News> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes.
It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair.
Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first domino to fall.
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Takes a lot of IaaS to support the GPUs and workflows, all of that kit is immediately re-useable as general purpose compute to exit the commercial DCs they operate out of today.
Much of their current debt fuelled expansion isn't singular to AI. The circular narrative ignores this.
My understanding of the ai circular financing racket is that not everyone will be running for a chair.
Nvidia owns all the chairs, and they’re letting other companies pretend to for a while, but if it all falls apart the backstop to the collapse will be nvidia.
Oracle has been a toxic tech for a long time (along with IBM). I don't think anyone is putting it in the same bucket of modern tech companies, let alone AI companies.
Frankly, their forays into dubious financial engineering and investments are expected at this point.
It would be great if they open sourced the proprietary bits in the VirtualBox suite before that.
And let’s be honest there’s absolutely no chance Oracle will be successful here right?
Everyone in the tech and media world is dead set on this being a bubble.
Yet, even now, Fable is able to do the work of 4-5 engineers when used by a single senior engineer. Teams can and will shrink.
Look at all the production and advertising companies switching over to Seedance. I know ad firms bidding 1/4th their typical contract price (pharma, P&G, etc.) and winning contract after contract.
This isn't dotcom "dark fiber" before demand. The demand is here now, big legacy firms are just struggling with deploying it. Nimble small teams are making a killing.
What's the best way to hedge against this, considering many of us have significant savings in the market?
A few puts on SPY dated a year or two out?