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conformistyesterday at 10:13 PM1 replyview on HN

Isn’t the point more “it’s easy to fall into the trap to believe that predicting when the sigmoid is going to bend is possible and the right heuristic is to instead extrapolate locally”?

That aside, I’d question whether applying the Lindy effect in particular to something that’s not really a life expectancy but more a growth rate is credible… or perhaps a bit circular since it “assumes away” the ceiling.


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throwaway27448yesterday at 10:32 PM

Nobody in this thread is trying to predict when the sigmoid is going to bend. Perhaps they should

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