logoalt Hacker News

defgenerictoday at 3:20 AM3 repliesview on HN

Exactly. The post read to me as another variation of the denial that people with expertise are reaching for right now. My sense is that we as programmers went through it over a year ago already (perhaps not all of us, but at least anyone paying attention), and so it's easy to overlook that it's still new to people who do other forms of "knowledge work," i.e. people whose identity is bound up with their expertise.

My working theory at the moment is that for programmers it was relatively "clean" and took the form of an inside-out transformation of the work, where AIs directly produced the central work product more or less adequately and relatively early on, but for other forms of work it will appear as some mixture of inside-out (in which case it will appear similarly first as a tool, then as something more than mere tool) and outside-in (the things surrounding their work and the supports their work processes rely on will be progressively automated). This is going to give rise to all sorts of pathologies in the white collar world, we'll get all kinds of variations on denial/negotiation, and so on, until it fully transforms the division of labor.

One interesting point of reference here: Yuval Harari gave a talk recently about the radical changes that will take place relatively quickly, in which he noted the AIs are not quite as good at writing as he is yet, although he expects they will be relatively soon. He then gave the timeline for what he considered "soon": 10 years! So we find the denial ("I still have time, they're not as good as me yet, maybe in 10 years...") even among the most vocal "prophets," among those supposedly most wised-up to what's going on and where the capability frontier lies.


Replies

FiberBundletoday at 11:26 AM

Have you considered the possibility that you're simply not as good as the experts, and that your experience of LLMs being capable of performing your work up to your standards doesn't imply that experts are necessarily in denial?

show 1 reply
znnajdlatoday at 5:35 AM

What sort of denial are you reading into the author's post? I don't read it as denial. He is fully acknowledging the usefulness of AI.

show 1 reply
jagenabler2today at 6:34 AM

Did you maybe consider that the 10 year timeline is not denial, but actually well educated reasoning based on Yuval’s experience and understanding of the problem space? You shouldn’t dismiss people’s thoughts as denial just because they don’t match your perspective.

show 1 reply