> That's Kami Kaze for US frontier labs. There's no way from here for them towards trillion dollar valuations.

Those valuations are a scam, they have always been a scam, like an updated version of the collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) from 2008 [0]

[0] https://www.theguardian.com/business/2010/apr/18/goldman-sac...

I saw the same kind of comments when the first Deepseek model was initially released. However the relevance that investors assign to something like this does not seem to match the excitement expressed here.

I think they do not believe that big corporations in the US or Europe would actually use chinese models in their business operations due to security, regulatory and/or business continuity concerns.

That's exactly what people said when Deepseek V3 was released. Two years later the valuations roughly have quadrupled.

> That's strategic sabotage to say the least.

It is clear from the beginning that the Chinese Open Model are a proxy for economic warfare. Anyway their singular goal is to dethrone US monopoly on SOTA model and burn all the economic hype and investments. If this strat works, which we will see after Anthropic/OAI IPO, we'll be in for an interesting ride

It's the USA, you can just ban it.

https://public-inspection.federalregister.gov/2026-21447.pdf

It's a project based on vLLM, explain why you consider it a total game changer?

If logic was in vogue then this would be true and SpaceX wouldn't be worth 2T dollars

Can you explain how this removes their moat? Genuine question, I'm not sure I understand enough about LLMs to get how an open source inference engine undermines them.

VC and valuation (alone) backed success has never been dependent on a business or product being good. All that is needed is finding the bag holder(s), and the way our economy and financial systems are designed that's the core competancy of this system.

That’s why we will probably see Fable 5.5 this evening.

US companies are throwing money at the problem, and considering how good Opus 5.5 is I’m not too concerned about them.

Interference optimization is a solved problem with no moat. Anybody can achieve this result, optimize for a particular hardware, optimize for a particular problem. In general, software is no longer a moat.

The moat is custom inference hardware, lower power, higher throughput, etc.

Yup. Hyperscalers are going to eat them alive. AWS/Azure/GCP hosted instances of cheaper-but-almost-as-good models like Deepseek are going to eat OAI and Anthropic alive.

They'll need to release cheaper, better models to compete. Which may not be possible.

I wouldn't say yet its Kami Kaze.

The overall market will still be big, very big, if it replaces real people or augments every single worker.

Some contracts will go to your local provider (US Gov, etc.).

And there is still a moat between them and DeepSeek.

As long as i can afford it, i use Opus.

I'm not bound by it and switching is very fast

I don't gamble, but if you really believe this, there's apparently some serious money to be made.

https://polymarket.com/event/anthropics-valuation-end-of-oct...

These have not really budged (yet) on this news.

It's crazy that a ~400 person side project by a Chinese firm can put up such a fight.

All other models are also either by <1k labs or side hustles by tech companies who are not particularly known for LLMs

Can you say more? Why would the inference engine be the secret sauce that would protect trillion-dollar valuations? Isn't the inference side somewhat of a known-quantity, while the training is more of the lab's trade secret?

No, that's open source and it will be an accelerator for everyone, instead of a small advantage kept by a few. Even the frontier labs benefit. I'd argue (like I did when the initial DeepSeek was released), that the AI market *needs* to those inference breakthrough.

Has anyone figured out why Chinese billionaires are releasing these models? Do they hold short positions on US markets? Why would Xiaomi, et al. release these models in the first place? What is the strategic purpose here? I cannot believe for a second that they are doing it for human good.

Where are the competitor to the big frontier labs? The Chinese providers are demonstrating everything can be done cheaper and practically identical. I'm surprised upstarts aren't showing up.

There will always be special demand for the "best possible" and "fasted around" inference and they will pay. "Good enough" models are useful for many tasks but cannot replace the whatever frontier is at the time. That's why the top 2 labs are rake in ~80% of total inference income.

> That's Kami Kaze for US frontier labs. There's no way from here for them towards trillion dollar valuations.

I don't understand the reference to Kamikaze in this context. Is Deepseek destroying itself in order to deep-six US frontier labs?

  The term is used generically in modern warfare for an attacking vehicle which is itself destroyed when attacking a target; for example, a kamikaze drone. [0]

Deepseek came out of a hedge fund, right? Do they just bet against US stock and release for free a pile of stuff that basically shatters them? I never seen anyone saying that, but it would be an awesome business model.

I hope more hedge funds start doing that. Basicaly funding open development to profit from tanking uptight super serious American stocks, to fund even more open development.

If you can't beat them, give the common folk means to skip them and profit from their fall.

Do not under estimate the retardation of investors

I don't see how this proposition holds. It's just part of an inference engine for serving DS4.1 Flash. Which vLLM and SGlang can already do. Less efficiently, I'm sure, but on much broader hardware, and with other models in the mix.

People will take the novel bits here and port them to the above. The community as a whole will benefit. Including infrastructure engineers inside OpenAI and Anthropic.

But a lot of what's in here is already in published papers out of DeepSeek already.

Sure, any day now DeepSeek is going to destroy the valuation of OpenAI and Anthropic. I've been hearing this since DeepSeek first launched in Jan 2025, 21 months ago. And with every new model generation, both open and closed, I hear a chorus of "this is now good enough!". And then I hear it again for the next generation.

Meanwhile OpenAI has grown their revenue like 10x and Anthropic has grown theirs like 65x in that same time period.

There's no cap on what you can do with frontier intelligence, nor how much of it you can use. Yes, DS and other open weight models will continue to grow like crazy (as long as they can source compute), but so will the frontier labs. I ran like 20 agents overnight last night on Opus, Fable, Sol, and Astra last night, trying to use up quota before my weekly reset, and I'd gladly have done 10x that much and used agents 10x more intelligent if I could have. And in six months I probably will.

how? openai can copy some of the ideas on top of their own. Smaller labs gain this tech without much development, but is isn't like they will magically beat frontier labs. Is a smaller deal than you think vs kami kaze.

That’s a bingo

TARIFFS! LOL

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