alt Hacker NewsIf the scores on Artificial Analysis really do mean that this model is better than GPT-6 Astra and Fable 5.1, that means that China is more like 6 weeks behind the US in frontier capabilities rather than 6 months. Which means that the US lead is all but gone.
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Ant/OpenAI both have unreleased models that are seemingly much more capable than what they offer today, so I'd say that's pretty unclear.
Perhaps you missed this part:
> Open-weight principles. These evaluations frame our open-weight release decision. First, we aim not to release open weights that would extend the absolute frontier of cyber capability. K3.1 Pro's offensive cyber capability is, by design, below what our pipeline can produce, and remains behind that of frontier proprietary models. Second, we intend to progressively raise the cyber capability available in open weights. We believe making K3.1 Pro available in a non-discriminatory way benefits people who need dual-use capabilities for defensive purposes. When a capable model is open and runs on infrastructure its users control, many more teams gain the means to audit the code they maintain — including legacy systems that rarely receive dedicated security reviews. We believe that letting this capability diffuse gradually — rather than concentrating it in a few proprietary systems — ultimately makes all software more secure.
I don't think Chinese labs are behind at all. I think the tell is that they keep releasing models 2 weeks after new American proprietary models that match or beat them. Suggesting they're sitting on much higher capabilities and releasing just enough to undercut
Could be part of the reason that the frontier models are getting the administration to go a little harder against Chinese models.
> Which means that the US lead is all but gone.
You can see in this discussions the goalposts being actively moved to desperately create a notion that the lead is still there.
You even see people in this thread referring to imaginary wonder models that they expect US companies to have under development that are supposedly leaps and bounds more impressive, albeit the only reference there is to their existence is the commenters hopes and dreams.
I think people need to realize that there is no longer a cutting edge company that is expected to dominate, and among the multitude of AI companies in the field competition is so tight that no one would even be surprised if tomorrow some other company far away from the US was able to crank out the top performing model, or something like a small local model that outperforms mid/high tier frontier models. The local model alone would be a death sentence to US companies, who are still burning through 10x their revenue.