S&P Global has lowered Oracle’s creditworthiness from BBB to BBB-

Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes.

For example, Amazon just had a challenging bond offering where the market is clearly starting to seriously question the ROI on all this money being pumped into AI buildout. That does not bode well at all for AI-only companies without broader cash flow from other businesses. And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like a house of cards.

And they terminated 30k employees to achieve this?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonmarkman/2026/04/06/oracles-m...

Title is inaccurate. They're BBB- now, not BBB.

Here's hoping this screws up the collateralization of the Paramount takeover deal, and the whole thing unravels.

Good riddance. Maybe if the trash-tier AI plays get knocked out I'll be able to buy memory and GPUs again.

Ed Zitron must be feeling quite validated :-)

This site is shady as hell. You try to decline marketing in their pop-up and it hides maybe a 100 providers and expects you to click each one individually.

Is it me or do none of the AI companies have a "moat" in the Ben Grahmm sense.

I use their services, but I frankly don't care who provides it. I'll chase the chepest/best and have no issue switching from one to another.

The only moat I can see is Microsoft providing its services to companies in its Azure system. Nervous IT departments probably like that it's not leaving their control if Bob in the SAP team spins up some AI crap.

S&P Global link: https://www.spglobal.com/ratings/en/regulatory/article/-/vie...

Oracle LFCF (ttm): -24.54B

Levered free cash flow (LFCF) is the cash remaining after a company has paid its debts and operational costs. Oracle has 167.43B debt. $43 billion in last fiscal year.

Google, Meta, Microsoft, Amazon will be fine if AI bubble bursts. Oracle will be among first to go down in flames after OpenAI.

It's still a bunch too high should be below junk imho

“We don’t mind losing customers” Former Oracle CEO on their unwavering support for Israel.

What happens when Oracle can't pay the interest on their loans?

in all our hearts they were always rated CCC

Oh no.

Anyway...

people have been burning investor money for heat in re: AI for a few years now and it's starting to get chilly...

This is surprising to me. Judging by what appears to be the common sentiment here on HN - which is that AI inference is already profitable, and OpenAI is fairly valued by private markets.

Given that Oracle and Microsoft are major counterparties of OpenAI, it seems odd that their stocks have been performing so poorly recently. Can anyone square this circle for me?

There is AI data center overcapacity already. The KOSPI crashed last week, and it's a leading indicator for the cyclical hardware industry. It already had been that indicator in the 2000 bubble.

I don't know what possessed Ellison to ruin a functioning company, but it will be interesting if he gets a margin call for ORCL's other debt exposures, which are Ellison's massive loans against his ORCL stock.

I can’t wait for Ai bubble to bust already. Maybe it will happen in October/November like the crypto hype.

Imagine if their acquisition of TikTok had gone through.

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Good. F** oracle.

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Wasn't Tesla rated an F while it was in its hyper growth phase?

Is just wild to me people thinking ai is tulip fever or a massive bubble when every part of my life ai is entering. Even these forums 35 percent of posts are ai or vibe code related. At work (medical field) ai is replacing scribes and it can read an ecg better than your average doc. TSMC and chip companies are using in their pipelines. Pharm and bio companies are using. Archeologists are using to decode scrolls and find new petroglyphs. Education and tutoring will never be the same ... kids got lucky having YouTube but now you basically have your private tutor. Vfx is being infiltrated. Computer security. I look around and robots are delivering my food and waymo is picking me up. I turn on the news and in the last couple months Ukraine is now using ai targeting on their drones in addition to the machine vision. My apartment complex recently had a renovations and paint job and my landlord showed me how they designed the color scheme and renovations with chat gpt before getting a crew to do the work. I made an app for my family photography contest for the first time something I never dreamed of at 40 years old with no programming knowledge. I updated my framer website faster than I ever have with Ai.

So please explain to me how this is a bubble especially considering that most of these feature are based on llm and not even on how we primarily interact with the world ...visually. the bubble will happen after I can turn on a webcam and the program watches me draw or do a golf swing and gives me realtime tips or i put on some ar glasses and it coaches me at work .

The amount of compute needed for graphics real time info is astronomical compared to llm . We are so far from the top of a bubble. The problem with ai in my opinion invest with the mindset that what goes up must come down and if it went up big it must come down hard soon. That's not a rule of nature or anything somethings are bedrock and keep going up. I'm sure when electricity was invented and reached every house maybe some people thought the bubble was over but we keep needing more and more. There is zero evidence now that we will need less ai compute.

I think it's logical to be skeptical of chatgpt IPO etc but the sector as a whole is crushing and maybe because of fear will have some hiccups but will certainly prevail for a long time imo