> Market signals on an impending AI bust are broader than just Oracle’s woes.

It's worse than that - I believe that Oracle is one of the (many) companies right now that, if their AI experimentation fails, will stop the music, and everyone will be running for a chair.

Oracle is one of a few foundational components in the circular-investing group of AI companies. If they fail to make their commitments they're the first domino to fall.

This is a pretty Oracle-specific situation, isn't it? They bet the company on an AI infrastructure buildout and levered hard to do it. Google, Amazon, and Microsoft aren't in comparable situations. Oracle is transforming itself into a value-added CoreWeave (not just in terms of product packaging but also the financial structure of the company), in a way the other hyperscalers aren't.

This story has been playing out for years now, and reads to me like the market simply recognizing that Oracle is not in the same business as it once was. It could succeed, wildly, at this new thing, but its risk isn't going to be valued based on the business it was 10 years ago.

And none of the major model makers (not counting SpaceX) have IPO'd yet

> And when the cash dries up this whole thing comes crashing down like a house of cards.

The problem in this market is that too many players are trying to play a winner-takes-all angle.

For the companies that pull it off, it could be very lucrative.

In a real market we’ll get a couple of big winners rather than one, but there isn’t enough room for all of these moonshot efforts to land.

I don’t see the whole thing coming crashing down, but I do see a consolidation coming that leaves some companies in a very bad state.

I was at the ophthalmologist for the second time in two weeks - my new prescription wasn't quite right, new lenses should be here this week.

All that to say: I had to move my focus around a bit and re-read "...pumped into AI buildout." several times, because I thought I was reading Ed Zitron :D

Hi there, how do you know Amazon's bond offering was "challenging"? Curious to learn more. Thank you.

Nothing says “full of shit” like someone saying “market is signaling an impending X”. Why not make a huge levered bet and get wildly rich if you think so?

IMHO these signals have more to do with the market than AI. They aren't finding AI to be have less ROI than before - they are requiring higher ROI than before, because there is less money remaining to be invested.

Managing the total amount of money so that investment bubbles peter out before they get excessively big is supposed to be the central bank's job.