71 cents*, the bookie gets a cut either way it goes.

> I bet the average price for a no bet across these markets is 73 cents.

Behavioral economics has already answered the question of whether humans are, on average, perfectly rational economic actors. They are not.

To the contrary, there is substantial evidence indicating a meaningful number of humans will mis-estimate the likelihood of uncommon future events.

It's not. But also a lot of those stats thrown around are misleading.

Why would outcomes match perceptions?

The whole premise of gambling is that they don't